Against that backdrop, short of direct military confrontation, the West did not have a surfeit of easy policy responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Whether it’s goods or energy, the price is rising on the things we need in this post-pandemic existence. This bass-ackwards energy policy does and will continue to produce high and rising fuel prices. The demand for hydrocarbons continues to rise as CAPEX falls. Unfortunately, pulling a vast amount of industrial metals out of the ground requires miners to burn fossil fuels. As wealthy Westerners aim to fight the good fight against carbon emissions, the success of their wind and solar buildout – and the accelerated retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles accompanying it – is predicated on developing countries polluting their local environments in order to produce nickel, copper, cobalt, and other key industrial commodities. On the energy spectrum, wealthy Western citizens decided to underinvest in fossil fuels, which provide a high return relative to the energy invested in them, and invest heavily in renewable energy, which has a much lower return relative to the energy invested. That is why inflation, at least from a goods perspective, will remain sticky. If you’re one of these keyboard warriors, your consumption basket in and around the office is completely different from the basket of goods you enjoy inside your place of abode. The global supply chain was not prepared for the wealthiest and largest consumers to ditch their one- to two-hour daily commute in favour of strolling into their home office clad in the latest Lululemon jammies.

The inflation is entrenched because a large number of jobs are now being done from home, and the wealthy computer desk jockeys working these jobs now require a different mix of goods. Almost everyone across the globe was sequestered in their homes for the better part of two years, driving a torrent of inflation that is here to stay. The COVID pandemic, and most importantly, the global policy response to it, pulled forward decades worth of societal trends in a very short period of time. (Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

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